S&P 500 forecast to rise just 1.3% to 7,620 by year-end 2026, Reuters poll shows

Wall Street’s best guess for where the S&P 500 ends 2026 is barely above where it sits right now. A Reuters poll of 47 market strategists, analysts, and portfolio managers projects the index will close the year at 7,620, a gain of just 1.3% from its May 26 close of 7,519.12.

The numbers behind the shrug

The poll, conducted between May 15 and May 26 and published on May 27, paints a picture of cautious resilience. Respondents see the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting 52,500 by year-end, while the S&P 500 is expected to push further to 8,050 by mid-2027.

Earlier forecasts this year had pointed to steeper targets. The 2026 earnings growth expectation for the S&P 500 has jumped from 16% back in January to nearly 25% more recently. The sectors capitalizing on AI advancements have been the market’s load-bearing wall, propping up index-level performance even as geopolitical chaos and commodity price spikes create headwinds everywhere else.

War, oil, and the inflation problem

The conflict escalated sharply in late February 2026, sending crude oil prices above $100 per barrel. Higher energy prices feed directly into inflation, which had already been a persistent concern heading into the year.

What this means for investors

The mid-2027 target of 8,050 offers a more interesting signal. The gap between 7,620 at year-end and 8,050 roughly six months later represents about a 5.6% move. The near-25% earnings growth expectation is the number worth watching most closely. If companies deliver on those elevated forecasts, the market has a floor.

AI-linked companies have been carrying the index. Energy stocks benefit directly from the same high oil prices that are weighing on the broader outlook.