Wintermute: Bitcoin's Surge Past $80,000 Driven More by Short Squeeze Than Healthy Demand

On May 13, Wintermute's market report indicated that Bitcoin's rise past $80,000 was primarily driven by a short squeeze in the perpetual futures market rather than by spot demand. Over the past month, Bitcoin futures open interest increased by approximately $10 billion to $58 billion, while spot trading volume fell to a two-year low. When Bitcoin surpassed $70,000, a large number of shorts were forced to cover, triggering a buying spree that pushed prices higher. Wintermute warned that the rally, lacking support from spot demand, is fragile and the market may face a sharp reversal. In the long term, recent net inflows into spot ETFs totaled $623 million, and the exchange Bitcoin supply has dropped to a seven-year low, but these factors are insufficient to offset short-term risks. The higher-than-expected U.S. CPI data and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve chair nomination may also exacerbate market pressures. Wintermute stated that while reaching $85,000 remains possible, the risk-reward ratio for buying at current levels is poor.