Analysis: Quantum risks may affect $145 billion worth of BTC, with significant selling pressure but the market can withstand it and it is not catastrophic

BlockBeats News, April 23, according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin analyst James Check pointed out that recent advances in quantum computing have once again raised concerns about Bitcoin — theoretically, sufficiently powerful crypto-related quantum computers could break Bitcoin's elliptic curve signatures, exposing Bitcoin with visible public keys, particularly those in wallets from the early Satoshi era. However, market data indicates that even in the worst-case scenario, such a sell-off would be massive but bearable, not catastrophic.

It is estimated that about 1.7 million BTC are located in Satoshi-era addresses potentially vulnerable to this type of attack, equivalent to approximately $145 billion at current prices in potential selling pressure. However, data shows that during bull markets, long-term holders (investors holding for at least 155 days) typically distribute 10,000 to 30,000 BTC per day. At this rate, the entire Satoshi-era supply would be equivalent to two to three months of normal profit-taking. In the most recent bear market, more than 2.3 million BTC were traded in a single quarter, exceeding the “target amount” involved in quantum computing concerns, yet the market did not collapse systemically. Monthly exchange inflows approach 850,000 BTC. The derivatives market handles notional trading volumes every few days that equal the entire Satoshi reserve.

Check stated that a sudden, concentrated release would still trigger volatility and could lead to a prolonged downturn, but this scenario assumes economically irrational behavior—any entity able to access such assets would be incentivized to gradually distribute them, possibly hedging through derivatives to reduce slippage and maximize returns. He believes that the real issue is not mechanical selling pressure, but governance—the bigger topic is freezing Satoshi's coins through BIP-361 and then letting developments take their natural course.