Norwegian krone's rally may not sustain, Danske Bank warns EUR/DKK could target the 11.50 level

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汇通财经2026/04/17 10:40

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Danske Bank analyst Lomholt released a report stating that the recent strong performance of the Norwegian krone lacks a sustainable foundation. Although expectations of a rate hike by Norges Bank provide short-term support for the krone, structural headwinds are eroding the asset’s appeal.
Compared with the eurozone, Norway faces a more pronounced negative output gap. Its core inflation remains elevated, and the widening gap in unit labor costs is further undermining competitiveness. These macroeconomic fractures are causing the relative positioning of Norwegian assets in cross-market allocations to continue declining.
The institution specifically warned of acute downside risks to Norway’s mainland economy. If weakened domestic demand resonates with volatility in energy revenues, the euro/Norwegian krone return distribution in the coming years will likely skew significantly toward a weaker krone.
Danske Bank gave a clear exchange rate path forecast, expecting the euro/Norwegian krone to rise from the current 11.0413 level to 11.50 over the next 12 months. If developments in the Middle East drag down oil demand expectations, a contraction in Norway’s oil and gas export revenues combined with domestic economic weakness could deliver a double blow, and the krone may then face even greater selling pressure.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Norwegian krone's rally may not sustain, Danske Bank warns EUR/DKK could target the 11.50 level

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