Barclays: Middle East conflict pressures exchange rates and inflation, Indonesia and the Philippines are expected to pause easing.

(1) Barclays economists stated in a report that Indonesia and the Philippines are unlikely to further ease monetary policy. Against the backdrop of Middle East conflicts, the strengthening US dollar is expected to put pressure on the Indonesian rupiah. (2) According to Barclays' base scenario forecast, this may prevent Bank Indonesia from cutting rates at Tuesday's policy meeting, as well as in June and December. (3) Given inflation concerns, the Philippine central bank is also expected to take a cautious stance toward further rate cuts. However, Barclays believes the likelihood of the Philippine central bank raising rates is also low, as even if Brent crude oil prices reach $100 per barrel, the country's consumer inflation rate is still expected to remain below 4% this year.