Circle Internet (CRCL) Faces Regulatory and Crypto Volatility, Says Morgan Stanley

1. Following Kevin Warsh's appointment as Fed chair, the Fed has shifted back toward a more conservative policy stance. His hawkish position — that rates should not be cut before inflation returns to target — has significantly pushed back market expectations for easing. Holding rates steady throughout the year has now become the market's base-case scenario, while tail risks of further hikes are also beginning to be priced in. Expectations for global liquidity are tightening, although total stablecoin market capitalization in crypto continues to reach new all-time highs, with USDGO emerging as one of the fastest-growing stablecoins. 2. 10-year sovereign bond yields across major developed economies surged sharply this week: Japan climbed above 2.75% to multi-decade highs, the U.S. reached 4.57%, the UK touched 4.92%, and Germany rose to 3.14%. Yield volatility reached 3–4 sigma levels during the week, marking one of the most extreme moves since the 2022 UK pension crisis. Risk-off sentiment strengthened significantly, with capital rotating away from risk assets and into defensive assets. 3. BTC declined 1.96% this week, but the OBV volume-price divergence strategy delivered the strongest performance with +4.46% alpha. The strategy focuses on price-volume divergence signals: when price makes a new range low but OBV does not confirm with a new low, it treats this as a sign that selling momentum is fading and executes a contrarian buy on the 5-minute timeframe. Assets to watch: BTC, ONDO, HYPE, NEAR, PDD (earnings on May 27), MRVL, CRM, DELL.