How Is This Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Run Different Than All Previous Ones? (Pre-Halving Analysis)

The current bull run stands apart from its predecessors in several significant ways.

Bitcoin has undergone three halving events thus far. The first one was in 2012, followed by another in 2016, with the most recent occurring in 2020. Bitcoin surged to achieve new all-time highs only after each halving.

Contrastingly, this time, Bitcoin has already surpassed its previous peak set in 2021. Just last week, Bitcoin soared above $70,000, which is notable considering the upcoming halving slated for mid-April.

Current Bitcoin Rally Defies Historical Patterns

What sets this rally apart even further is the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs on US stock exchanges, a novelty in the digital asset industry.

Renowned analyst PlanB has echoed this sentiment, suggesting a departure from historical patterns. A visual analysis of the charts of past bull runs alongside the current trajectory highlighted the stark dissimilarities.

PlanB also highlighted one misconception about the halvings: historically, markets did not anticipate the effects of halving events in advance, yet this time, speculations are arising that BTC’s price could have been priced in already.

However, that has been the case for the previous such events as well, and it turned out to be false since it’s very difficult for the market to price in something as drastic as the reduction of supply creation.

First 3 halvings were not priced in… pic.twitter.com/XUoxo4qA6d

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 11, 2024

 

Dramatic Change in Bitcoin Halving Cycle

According to another prominent analyst, Rekt Capital, there are typically four phases of the Bitcoin halving cycle.

First is the pre-halving rally, which occurs around 60 days before the event and is marked by a surge in Bitcoin’s price to new local peaks. Then comes the pre-halving retrace, where short-term traders sell their positions to realize profits, leading to a temporary pullback in Bitcoin’s price.

The second phase involves the final pre-halving retrace, which occurs closer to the event itself and involves a deeper pullback in Bitcoin’s price, a trend that was seen in previous cycles.

Next is the re-accumulation phase, where Bitcoin’s price consolidates for several months following the halving. Rekt Capital noted that, in this cycle, the re-accumulation range coincides with the new all-time high area, potentially leading to a shorter and less volatile re-accumulation phase.

Finally, Rekt also predicted the onset of a Parabolic Uptrend phase characterized by accelerated growth in Bitcoin’s price. However, the analyst suggests that this phase may be shorter than in previous cycles due to a potential accelerated market cycle.

“Historically, this phase has lasted just over a year (~385 days) however with a potential Accelerated Cycle occurring right now, this figure may get cut in half in this market cycle.”