This Week's Preview: Macro "Flood Release" Week—Delayed CPI and the Bank of Japan's "Rate Hike Pursuit"

(December 15, 2025 - December 21, 2025)

In the past few months, global markets have been trading in a fog due to missing data and geopolitical disruptions. However, this week, that state will be completely shattered. As the U.S. Department of Labor is about to "make up" two months of non-farm payroll data at once, combined with the delayed CPI report and the Bank of Japan's almost certain rate hike, the macro market is about to experience an unprecedented "data flood."

Bitcoin (BTC) barely held the $88,000 mark this morning, which may seem like an emotional outburst, but in reality, it is a preemptive hedge against this week's "major test of dollar liquidity." When Coinbase's institutional innovation collides with the Bank of Japan's rate hike, this week is destined to be the most thrilling week at the end of 2025.

Key Focus 1: Non-farm Payrolls Catch-up, CPI Inflation, and Bank of Japan Rate Hike

This week's macro calendar is suffocatingly packed. The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, the real temperature of the U.S. economy, and the fate of yen carry trades will all be revealed this week.

1. Farewell to "Blind Flying": Double Non-farm Payroll Release (Tuesday) According to the Financial Times, this Tuesday (December 16), the U.S. will release non-farm payroll reports for both October and November. This is not just a set of data, but a crucial puzzle piece for the Federal Reserve to end its "blind man groping the elephant" phase.

• In-depth Analysis: The Federal Reserve just controversially cut rates to a three-year low last week, with significant internal hawk-dove divisions. Citibank economists predict this report will send extremely contradictory signals—expecting a decrease of 45,000 jobs in October (due to hurricanes/strikes), but a rebound of 80,000 in November.
• Market Risk: Citi warns that this rebound is a "seasonal adjustment" rather than a "real improvement in demand." If the unemployment rate rises to 4.52% as predicted (higher than the Fed's expected 4.5%), it will confirm the structural weakness of the U.S. labor market. For the crypto market, this means the "recession trade" logic may overwhelm the "rate cut benefit," triggering a broad decline in risk assets.

2. Delayed Inflation: CPI to Set Dollar Trend (Thursday) On December 18 (GMT+8), the delayed U.S. November CPI will be released.

• Game Logic: With the Fed already having cut rates, if CPI unexpectedly rebounds (above 3%), it will prove the Fed "cut rates too early," possibly triggering a retaliatory rebound in the dollar index and severely impacting BTC. Conversely, if CPI aligns with weak employment data, it will pave the way for further aggressive rate cuts next year.

3. Bank of Japan's "Clear Rate Hike": 98% Probability (Friday) On December 19 (GMT+8), the Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision. According to Polymarket data, the market is betting on a 98% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise rates by 25 basis points, with only a 2% chance of holding rates steady.

• Nuclear-level Risk: This is an extremely dangerous signal. While all major central banks are cutting rates, the Bank of Japan is the only one hiking. This "monetary policy divergence" is a nightmare for yen carry trades.
• Crypto Alert: The "Black Monday" on August 5 was triggered by a yen rate hike. Although the market has already priced this in (98% probability), the volatility in the yen exchange rate after the "expected outcome" could still cause high-leverage funds to exit the crypto market. If the yen surges on Friday, BTC may face a severe test of breaking below $85,000.

Key Focus 2: Institutions Bucking the Trend (Wednesday)

At the center of the macro storm, leading crypto institutions have chosen to launch a strategic counterattack this Wednesday (December 17). This demonstrates a complete decoupling between industrial capital and secondary market sentiment.

• Coinbase: Declaring War on Traditional Finance Coinbase plans to launch a prediction market and tokenized stocks on December 17.
• Strategic Significance: This is a landmark event. Coinbase is no longer content to be just a "crypto exchange"; it is attempting to directly tap into U.S. stock market liquidity through tokenized stocks, while using prediction markets to compete with Polymarket. In the current macro liquidity drought, introducing RWA (real world assets) is the only way to "reinvigorate" the crypto market.
• HashKey: Breaking the Ice with Hong Kong IPO HashKey Group is expected to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on the same day (December 17), raising up to HK$1.67 billion.
• Market Sentiment: Forcing an IPO amid "extreme fear," HashKey demonstrates strong compliance confidence. If its first-day performance is stable, it will strongly boost Asian capital's confidence in the Web3 sector, offsetting some macro headwinds.

Key Focus 3: Regulation and Regional Markets

• United States: SEC Roundtable and Legislative Push (Monday) The SEC Crypto Working Group is holding a roundtable today (15th), focusing on privacy and regulation. Meanwhile, the Senate is attempting to vote on the market structure bill this week. Although the post-election political landscape remains unclear, progress in legislation is the foundation for industry compliance.
• South Korea: Stablecoin Regulation "Delayed" (Bearish?) According to Korean media, the FSC failed to submit the Korean won stablecoin regulation bill on time, citing the need for "more time for coordination."
• Interpretation: South Korea is one of the most important retail markets globally. The delay in regulation means the compliance path for the Korean won stablecoin is blocked, which could dampen the Korean market's premium (kimchi premium) and limit the pace of new capital inflows.

Weekly Summary and Outlook

"Macro sets the floor, institutions set the ceiling."

This week's market logic is very clear:

1. Testing the Floor: Tuesday's non-farm payrolls and Friday's Bank of Japan rate hike are the two Damocles swords hanging over BTC. The $88,000 support is not just a technical level, but also the watershed for macro liquidity.
2. Breaking the Ceiling: Wednesday's Coinbase product launch and HashKey's listing are the only opportunities for the bulls to counterattack.

For traders, this week it's not just about watching the candlesticks, but also keeping an eye on the Dollar Index (DXY) and USD/JPY exchange rate. Before the Bank of Japan's decision lands on Friday, "cash is king and defense is key" may be the best strategy to weather this macro data "flood."