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Trend Research: The "Blockchain Revolution" is Underway, Remain Bullish on Ethereum

Trend Research: The "Blockchain Revolution" is Underway, Remain Bullish on Ethereum

ChaincatcherChaincatcher2025/12/12 07:48
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By:自1011市场暴跌后,整个加密市场行情寡淡,做市商和投资者损失惨重,资金和情绪的恢复需要时间。但加密市场最不缺的就是新的波动与机遇,我们依然对后市保持乐观。因为加密主流资产和传统金融融合成新业态的趋

The integration trend in the crypto market and Ethereum's value capture.

Since the1011market crash, the entire crypto market has been lackluster, with market makers and investors suffering heavy losses. The recovery of capital and sentiment will take time. However, what the crypto market lacks least is new volatility and opportunities, so we remain optimistic about the future. The trend of mainstream crypto assets integrating with traditional finance into a new ecosystem has not changed; in fact, during market downturns, this moat is being rapidly built up.

I. Strengthening Wall Street Consensus

On December 3, Paul Atkins, Chairman of the USSEC, stated in an exclusive interview with FOX at the New York Stock Exchange: "In the next few years, the entire US financial market may migrate on-chain."

Atkins stated:

(1)The core advantage of tokenization is that if assets exist on the blockchain, the ownership structure and asset attributes will be highly transparent. Currently, listed companies often do not know exactly who their shareholders are, where they are located, or where the shares are held.

(2)Tokenization is also expected to achieve "T+0" settlement, replacing the current "T+1" trading settlement cycle. In principle, on-chain Delivery Versus Payment (DVP)/Receive Versus Payment (RVP) mechanisms can reduce market risk and improve transparency, while the time lag between clearing, settlement, and fund delivery is currently one of the sources of systemic risk.

(3)He believes tokenization is an inevitable trend in financial services, and mainstream banks and brokers are already moving in this direction. It may not even take 10 years for the whole world... it could become reality in just a few years. We are actively embracing new technologies to ensure the US remains at the forefront in fields such as cryptocurrency.

In fact, Wall Street and Washington have already built a deep capital network in crypto, forming a new narrative chain: US political and economic elites US Treasuries Stablecoins / Crypto treasury companies Ethereum + RWA + L2

Trend Research: The

This diagram shows the Trump family, traditional bond market makers, the Treasury, tech companies, and crypto companies intricately connected, with the green elliptical lines forming the backbone:

(1)Stable Coin(USDT,USDC,WLD and the US dollar assets behind them etc.)

The main reserve assets are short-term US Treasuries + bank deposits, held through brokers such as Cantor.

(2)  US Treasuries

Issued and managed by Treasury / Bessent

Palantir,Druckenmiller,Tiger Cubs use them as low-risk interest rate base positions

They are also yield assets pursued by stablecoins / treasury companies.

  (3)  RWA

From US Treasuries, mortgages, accounts receivable to housing finance

Tokenized through Ethereum L1 / L2 protocols.

  (4)  ETH & ETH L2 equity

Ethereum is the main chain carrying RWA, stablecoins,DeFi,AI-DeFi.

L2 equity / Token represents claims on future trading volume and transaction fee cash flows.

This chain expresses:

US dollar creditUS TreasuriesStablecoin reservesVarious crypto treasuries / RWA protocolsUltimately settled on ETH / L2.

From theTVLofRWA, compared to other public chains that declined after1011,ETHis the only public chain that quickly recovered and rose. Currently,TVL is 12.4 billions, accounting for64.5%of the total crypto market.

Trend Research: The

II. Ethereum's Value Capture Exploration

Recently, Ethereum's Fusaka upgrade did not stir much in the market, but from the perspective of network structure and economic model evolution, it is a"milestone event".Fusaka is not just about scaling through PeerDASand otherEIPs, but also attempts to solve the problem of insufficient value capture by theL1mainnet since the development ofL2.

Trend Research: The

ThroughEIP-7918,ETHintroduces theblob base feeas a "dynamic floor price", binding its lower limit to the L1 execution layerbase fee, requiring thatblobmust pay theDAfee at a unit price approximately equal to L1 base fee 1/16; this meansRollupcan no longer occupyblobbandwidth at almost zero cost for a long time, and the corresponding fees will be burned and returned toETHholders.

Trend Research: The

There have been three Ethereum upgrades related to "burning":

(1) London (single dimension):only burns the execution layer,ETH starts to experience structural burning due to L1 usage

(2) Dencun (dual dimension + independent blob market):burns execution layer + blob, L2 data written to blob also burns ETH, but when demand is low, theblob portion is almost zero.

(3) Fusaka (dual dimension + blob bound to L1):to use L2(blob), you must pay at least a fixed proportion of the L1 base fee which is then burned,L2 activity is more stably mapped to ETH burning.

Trend Research: The

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Currently,blob feesat12.11 23:00 1hhave reached5696.3 billionstimes the pre-Fusaka upgrade level, with1527ETHburned in one day,blob feesaccounting for as much as98%of the total burning. AsETH L2becomes more active, this upgrade is expected to bringETHback to deflation.

III. Ethereum Technicals Strengthen

During the1011decline,ETHfutures leverage positions were fully cleared, eventually hitting spot leverage positions. Many who lacked faith inETHchose to reduce their positions and flee. According toCoinbasedata, speculative leverage in the crypto market has dropped to a historical low of4%.

Trend Research: The

In the past, a significant portion ofETHshorts came from the traditional Long BTC/Short ETH pair trade, which generally performed well in previous bear markets, but this time something unexpected happened.ETH/BTC ratio has been consolidating sideways sinceNovember.

Trend Research: The

ETH currently has an exchange balance of13 million coins, about10%of the total supply, at a historical low. As theLong BTC / Short ETH pair trade has failed sinceNovember, during times of extreme panic, there may gradually emerge a "short squeeze" opportunity.

Trend Research: The

As we approach the 2025-2026 period, both US and Chinese future monetary and fiscal policies have sent friendly signals:

The US will be proactive, cutting taxes, lowering interest rates, and relaxing crypto regulation. China will be moderately accommodative, maintaining financial stability (suppressing volatility) .

With relatively accommodative expectations in both the US and China, and in a scenario where asset downside volatility is suppressed, during times of extreme panic when capital and sentiment have not fully recovered,ETHstill sits in a favorable "batting zone" for buying.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Trend Research: Why Are We Still Bullish on ETH?

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深潮2025/12/12 10:15
Trend Research: Why Are We Still Bullish on ETH?
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