Fidelity analyst: Bitcoin may be entering a new cycle, year-end performance remains uncertain

ChainCatcher news, Fidelity's Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer posted on X, pointing out that after the excessive speculation in the crypto market has subsided, market sentiment has improved. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy and calm bond and foreign exchange markets, bitcoin's official closing in 2025 is actually quite good.

Previously, bitcoin treasury companies provided "yields" by issuing stocks to purchase bitcoin, which may now become a resistance to bitcoin's rise and has also raised questions about whether another four-year cycle has ended.

However, by observing the mature network curve structure of bitcoin, it can be seen that since 2010, bitcoin has experienced five waves of rallies. Each wave's increase has been smaller than the previous one, but the duration has become longer. From the performance in the most recent bull market (starting from about $16,000 in 2022), it is evident that bitcoin has become very mature.

According to the chart of the five waves of rallies shared by Jurrien Timmer, the peak price of bitcoin in the fifth wave could be $151,360.