Polymarket users forecast 97% probability of 25 bps rate cut

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket users predict a 97% probability of a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut.
• There is near-unanimous consensus on Polymarket for a quarter-point cut before the FOMC decision.

Polymarket users are forecasting a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points today. The decision will come in under three hours.

The prediction market platform shows near-consensus expectations among users for the quarter-point rate reduction.

CME FedWatch data now indicate around a 90% probability of a rate reduction, leaving only just over 10% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain current rates.