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Bitcoin News Update: AI Predicts Bitcoin May Not Reach $100k, Experts Watch for Recovery After Fed Decision

Bitcoin News Update: AI Predicts Bitcoin May Not Reach $100k, Experts Watch for Recovery After Fed Decision

Bitget-RWA2025/11/25 10:14
By:Bitget-RWA

- AI model predicts <50% chance for Bitcoin to hit $100k by Dec 31 amid whale sell-offs and Fed policy shifts. - Market volatility spikes as BTC dips below $85k, with $1.93B liquidations and bearish consolidation expected until mid-2026. - Arthur Hayes forecasts $80k support post-Dec 1 QT end, citing improved liquidity and U.S. bank lending growth. - Institutional buying contrasts with retail outflows, while DeepSnitch AI gains traction as high-risk alternative. - Fed's 79% rate cut chance and macroeconomi

AI Model Predicts Less Than 50% Odds for Bitcoin to Reach $100,000 by Year-End

The likelihood of

(BTC) climbing to $100,000 before December 31 has decreased, as an AI-based forecast now estimates the probability at under 50%. This outlook emerges during a volatile period for the market, driven by large-scale investor sell-offs, evolving expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, and increased attention on alternative cryptocurrencies such as DeepSnitch AI, which .

Bearish sentiment has taken hold as Bitcoin slipped beneath major support levels, including $85,000, raising concerns about a possible further drop toward the $70,000–$75,000 range. A significant liquidation event—$1.93 billion in positions erased in just 24 hours—has added to the market’s instability.

Bitcoin may remain in this price band until mid-2026, with a potential recovery hinging on better liquidity and changes in Fed policy.

Arthur Hayes, ex-CEO of BitMEX and a well-known figure in the crypto space, has become a prominent commentator during this period of uncertainty. Hayes believes Bitcoin has likely found a bottom at $80,000, pointing to improving liquidity as the Fed is set to conclude quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1. He expects one last dip into the low $80,000s but maintains that this level will act as a floor, supported by increased U.S. bank lending and the possibility of a shift toward looser monetary policy

. Hayes stated, "The total amount of credit is more important than its cost," from $16,000 to $100,000 even in a high interest rate environment.

Nonetheless, optimism is dampened by differences between institutional and retail investors. ETF data reveals $2.8 billion in outflows led by smaller investors, while institutions remain confident, continuing to acquire Bitcoin and

(ETH). At the same time, retail anxiety has driven traders toward riskier options such as DeepSnitch AI. —which monitor large investor activity and liquidity—have drawn in those looking to anticipate market shifts.

The direction of Fed policy remains uncertain. CME Group’s FedWatch tool now indicates a 79% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting, a sharp increase from 42% the previous week. However, economist Mohamed El-Erian has criticized the Fed’s "remarkable" volatility,

caused by the government shutdown and a lack of clear strategy. This ambiguity makes Bitcoin’s future less predictable, as the liquidity needed for a sustained rally depends on overall macroeconomic stability.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $86,507, marking an 8.35% decline over the past week. While Hayes and others believe a surge to $200,000–$250,000 is possible if liquidity improves, the AI model’s pessimistic forecast highlights the obstacles ahead. With ongoing geopolitical issues, the rise of AI-powered trading tools, and uncertain Fed policy, investors must navigate a complex landscape as 2025 approaches.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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