Analysis: Strange Divergence in US Economic Data Puts the Federal Reserve in a Policy Dilemma

On November 24, it was reported that the U.S. economy is exhibiting puzzling anomalies, causing unease among policymakers tasked with both curbing inflation and maintaining the labor market. According to data from the Department of Labor, there were job losses in June and August, and the average number of new jobs added in the three months ending in September was only about 62,000. However, worker productivity, a key driver of economic output, has remained high. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures the output of all goods and services in the economy, has also stayed strong. This contradictory phenomenon of economic expansion coexisting with a weak labor market presents a dilemma for Federal Reserve policymakers, making it difficult to determine whether the economy needs to be cooled down or stimulated. Economists believe it is still uncertain whether rate cuts can ultimately offset the erosive effects of major policy changes on hiring. Ryan Sweet, Chief U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics, stated, "Fortunately, we have not yet seen large-scale layoffs; otherwise, an expansion without job growth would turn into a recession. The economy can grow without creating a large number of jobs, but only if productivity continues to grow well." An expansion without job growth could quickly evolve into a recession.