JPMorgan Lowers Bullish's 2026 Projection, Adjusts Focus to Fundamental Earnings

JPMorgan & Co. has reiterated its "Neutral" stance on Bullish Inc. (BLSH) after the company’s third-quarter earnings, but has lowered its 2026 price estimate from $46 to $45, reflecting a revised outlook on the crypto exchange’s profit structure. This change, outlined in an equity research note released Thursday,

of high-margin stablecoin promotion revenue generated from Bullish’s $1.2 billion IPO funds, which analysts argued distorted the company’s fundamental valuation. The updated $45 target from the recent closing price of $36.50.

Bullish’s third-quarter results surpassed projections, posting an adjusted diluted EPS of $0.10, in line with Bloomberg’s consensus, and revenue of $77 million, beating the $74 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $29 million, also ahead of forecasts,

and other (SS&O) revenue, a significant jump from $12 million a year earlier. analysts called the performance “solid,” though they observed some seasonal softness in event-driven trading.

The bank’s updated projections remove about $6.2 million in Q3 SS&O revenue linked to stablecoin promotions funded by IPO proceeds, which carry nearly a 100% margin. This change

, lowering the 2026 adjusted EPS estimate from $1.29 to $0.93. JPMorgan expects $12 million in stablecoin promotion revenue for Q4, which will also be excluded from its core valuation analysis. , fourth-quarter dynamics—characterized by increased volatility in and ethereum—set Bullish up for a “much more favorable” trading environment.

This approach of Bullish from “Hold” to “Buy,” though with a slightly lower price target of $51. Deutsche Bank pointed to Bullish’s U.S. expansion and its role as a technology provider for traditional financial institutions entering crypto as major growth factors. The bank also highlighted the exchange’s in Q3 and its ability to maintain adjusted EBITDA margins above 40% in 2026.

Bullish’s shares have struggled, trading near their lowest point in a year amid a broader downturn in the crypto market.

, even as Q3 revenue jumped by 72%. JPMorgan’s analysts acknowledged the market’s volatility but , such as the October launch of U.S. options trading and ongoing efforts to attract institutional clients, as potential drivers for future expansion.

The decision to omit non-core income is in line with a wider industry shift toward reevaluating crypto valuations in light of regulatory changes and market consolidation. While Bullish’s core trading and fee-based revenues remain strong, JPMorgan’s updated model

in a rapidly evolving regulatory and technological landscape.