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NFP +74.26% 24H - Significant short-term surge during an extended bearish phase

NFP +74.26% 24H - Significant short-term surge during an extended bearish phase

Bitget-RWA2025/10/23 04:32
By:Bitget-RWA

- NFP surged 74.26% in 24 hours but fell 3042.74% over 1 month, highlighting extreme volatility amid a prolonged bear trend. - Analysts warn the rebound lacks follow-through buying power, with long-term bearish positioning unchanged despite short-term oversold conditions. - Proposed backtesting frameworks aim to quantify NFP surge impacts by defining surge thresholds, asset classes, and dynamic exit rules for position-holding strategies. - Key challenges include establishing consistent surge definitions (v

On October 23, 2025, NFP experienced a 74.26% increase in just 24 hours, reaching $0.0405. Over the following week, NFP fell by 665.14%, declined by 3042.74% in a month, and was down 8490.36% over the past year.

This notable 24-hour jump represented a rare positive movement for NFP, which has otherwise been on a sharp downward trend. Although the 74.26% rise provided a brief pause in the ongoing decline, it was not enough to alter the prevailing bearish momentum seen over the last month and year. The price fluctuations point to significant volatility, indicating rapid shifts in short-term sentiment, while the overall outlook remains negative. Experts anticipate additional downward adjustments unless NFP can break through major resistance levels highlighted in recent technical reviews.

From a technical analysis perspective, the sudden daily rebound could signal a temporary oversold state. However, considering the persistent declines over both medium and long-term periods, this uptick is unlikely to signal a lasting upward trend unless further bullish signals emerge. The lack of sustained buying interest continues to be a concern for those assessing the durability of this recovery.

Backtest Hypothesis

Recent trading patterns underscore the importance of targeted, event-based strategies to assess the effects of major NFP price movements. The suggested backtesting approach aims to measure how NFP surges influence asset performance, focusing on defining threshold criteria, choosing test assets, and setting clear exit strategies.

Critical elements for the backtest include specifying what constitutes an “NFP surge,” selecting which asset class to analyze, and determining the holding period for positions. It is vital to clarify whether a surge is measured against the previous month, market expectations, or an average benchmark to ensure consistent results. Likewise, the choice of asset—such as the S&P 500 ETF or other alternatives—will shape how the market responds to NFP-related signals.

Exit strategies must be precisely outlined to fully capture market reactions. For example, maintaining a position for a set duration (such as five trading days) or using adaptive indicators can yield different perspectives on the signal’s effectiveness. Additionally, deciding whether to take only long positions on surges or to test both long and short trades adds another layer of complexity to the approach.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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