Bernstein initiates coverage on Figure with $54 price target, says blockchain set to transform credit capital markets

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein have initiated coverage on Figure Technology Solutions with an "outperform" rating, setting a $54 price target.

Bernstein sees Figure as a first mover in building blockchain-based capital markets infrastructure for traditional assets, arguing its broader ecosystem — including a loan origination system, tokenization infrastructure on the Provenance blockchain, and a bilateral marketplace for tokenized credit — could eventually support tokenized equities and other real-world assets. 

In a note to clients on Monday, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani highlighted the company's leadership in blockchain-based credit tokenization, with an approximate 75% share of the $17 billion tokenized loan market, and its potential to disrupt traditional lending markets.

"Just as stablecoins tokenize the dollar and drive instant payments without any centralized intermediary, tokenized loans digitize and disintermediate lending markets," they wrote.

Figure's technology stack brings the liquidity of blockchain capital markets to consumer loans, transforming a "balance sheet heavy" lending model to a "capital light" marketplace business that reduces operating costs by over 90% and loan turnaround times by roughly 75%, according to Bernstein. The firm values Figure at roughly 26 times estimated 2027 EBITDA and 40 times projected earnings, implying a 34% upside from its Friday close of $40.30.

Figure's stock price opened at $36 on Sept. 11 following an initial public offering that valued the firm at over $7 billion. Figure's IPO comprised over 23 million shares of Class A common stock, along with nearly 8 million shares of the same class offered by existing stockholders. FIGR was up 2.2% in pre-market trading on Monday at $41.19, per TradingView.

Founded by SoFi co-founder Mike Cagney, Figure has grown into the leading independent non-bank home equity line of credit (HELOC) originator in the U.S., holding around 13% share of the non-depository market and originating $5.1 billion in HELOC loans in 2024, the analysts noted. Bernstein expects Figure to expand its share to about 25% by 2027, while extending its tokenization model to other loan products and asset classes.

With an addressable market for credit tokenization of around $2 trillion, the analysts project Figure’s revenue will rise from $341 million in 2024 to roughly $754 million by 2027 — a compound annual growth rate of about 30%. EBITDA is forecast to climb from $101 million to $427 million over the same period, with margins expanding from 30% to 57% as the company transitions from balance sheet lending to a fee-based marketplace model through its "Figure Connect" platform.

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Bernstein or its affiliates may receive compensation for investment banking services from Figure Technology Solutions.