Why Bitcoin Hits a Ceiling at $109K: ETF Outflows and Economic Challenges Pressure Bulls

In early October 2025, Bitcoin hovered around $109,000 as traders kept a close eye on major support and resistance zones, with ETF flows and blockchain data sending mixed signals. Experts noted that the asset was at a crucial crossroads, with a move above $112,500 or below $107,000 likely to determine its short-term direction.

September 2025 saw substantial outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, with U.S.-listed funds alone losing $258 million on September 25 $250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold? [ 9 ]. BlackRock’s iShares

Trust (IBIT) was the only ETF to attract new investments during this time, while others, such as Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), experienced significant withdrawals $250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold? [ 9 ]. Over the previous weeks, total outflows from Bitcoin ETFs reached $7.2 billion, marking the longest continuous weekly outflow streak since their debut in January 2024 Why Are Bitcoin ETFs Seeing Huge Outflows in 2025? [ 7 ]. ETFs followed a similar pattern, with $251 million withdrawn on September 25, making it the fourth straight day of redemptions $250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold? [ 9 ].

These outflows happened alongside a broader Bitcoin selloff, which saw the price drop to a four-week low of $108,700 on September 25 $250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold? [ 9 ]. Institutional investors, who had previously fueled inflows during the 2024 rally, appeared to be adjusting their portfolios in response to macroeconomic uncertainty, including the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policies and regulatory delays Why Are Bitcoin ETFs Seeing Huge Outflows in 2025? [ 7 ]. According to on-chain analytics provider Glassnode, long-term holders had realized profits on over 3.4 million BTC, indicating possible market fatigue $250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold? [ 9 ].

Bitcoin’s value found stability near the $109,000 mark, with buyers managing to defend this level after a sharp early September drop Bitcoin Holds $107K Support as Bulls Eye $112.5K Breakout [ 10 ]. However, technical signals pointed to weakness: the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) stayed just above 1, suggesting some investors were selling at a loss, while the Short-Term Holder NUPL indicator approached zero, highlighting increased risk of forced selling $250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold? [ 9 ].

Market experts stressed the importance of the $112,500 resistance. A move above this level could reignite bullish sentiment, with targets at $115,500 and possibly $118,000 Bitcoin Holds $107K Support as Bulls Eye $112.5K Breakout [ 10 ]. On the other hand, a drop below $109,000 might trigger widespread stop-loss selling, with subsequent support at $107,000, $105,000, and $96,000 Bitcoin Holds $107K Support as Bulls Eye $112.5K Breakout [ 10 ]. Analysts at CryptoQuant warned that a firm close below $109K–$110K, especially with a decline over 15%, could indicate a deeper market correction $250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold? [ 9 ].

The recent downturn unfolded amid broader economic challenges. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut in September initially boosted optimism, but Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious comments dampened expectations, strengthening the dollar and prompting risk aversion Bitcoin (BTC) News: Could Crash to $107K as DXY Prints [ 11 ]. The dollar index (DXY) formed a bullish reversal, a pattern that has historically favored the U.S. currency and often coincided with weakness in cryptocurrencies Bitcoin (BTC) News: Could Crash to $107K as DXY Prints [ 11 ].

At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs came under scrutiny as corporate treasuries holding the asset faced mounting pressure. More than 200 companies had Bitcoin on their balance sheets, but falling prices put some at risk of selling to meet obligations Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum Are Falling. Here Are the 3 Main … [ 6 ]. Additionally, leveraged positions in the crypto market intensified volatility, with $1.7 billion in liquidations occurring in late September Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Falls to $112,725 After $1.7B … [ 12 ].

There is no consensus among analysts regarding Bitcoin’s short-term outlook. Some, such as Arthur Hayes, pointed to improving bank credit supply as a possible bullish factor Bitcoin ETFs Battle $5.3 Billion Loss, Recovery Signals Emerge [ 8 ], while others, including Markus Thielen from 10x Research, cautioned that a revisit of $107,500 could lead to a steeper decline $250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold? [ 9 ]. Data from Binance indicated that the current pullback was still within a normal correction range, with expectations of consolidation above $109K and a potential retest of the $118K–$122K zone $250M Leaves BTC ETFs as Price Hits $109K: Will It Hold? [ 9 ].

For institutional players, this period highlighted the need for careful liquidity and risk management. VanEck’s HODL Bitcoin Trust, for instance, retained a holding of 16,780 BTC (worth $1.83 billion) despite outflows, demonstrating a commitment to long-term strategy Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Outflows in September 2025: What It … [ 1 ]. Retail investors, on the other hand, were encouraged to track ETF flows and blockchain indicators for early signs of changing market sentiment.