Bitcoin rally shows room to run toward $130,000 before demand cools off

Bitcoin’s (BTC) move into new all-time highs leaves statistical room for it to reach $130,000 before historical demand exhaustion zones, according to a July 16 report by Glassnode.

Bitcoin broke out of a multi-week range of $100,000 to $110,000 and printed a new high near $122,000, clearing dense cost-basis clusters where buyers had concentrated between $93,000 and $97,000 and $104,000 and $110,000. 

Investors who built positions in those bands now anchor potential pullback support as price discovery resumes above prior resistance, giving traders a reference ladder for downside tests should momentum fade.

Positioning above heavy cost bands

The report examined its Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap and found concentrated acquisition in the two lower zones that Bitcoin just cleared. Clearing those supply shelves often converts them into support, as previously underwater or flat‑PnL holders turn into defenders of entry cost. 

Image: Glassnode

With spot now well above both clusters, desks tracking downside absorption will watch whether bids reappear if Bitcoin revisits the $104,000 to $110,000 band.

Profit saturation builds

The report also assessed Glassnode’s Cost-Basis Distribution Quantiles, which showed a spot above the 95th percentile level at $107,400. This places the bulk of the circulating supply in profit. 

Furthermore, the report stated that sharp bursts above this percentile in prior cycles drew heavier profit-taking as a widening investor base captured gains, raised aggregate cost bases, and created more price-sensitive ownership structures. 

That dynamic can lead to top-heavy conditions when repeated on a larger scale.

Bitcoin rose to $122,600 and then retraced to $115,900 as investors sold into strength once the price extended more than one standard deviation above the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis. 

Image: Glassnode

Historical studies in the report indicate that STH+1 frequently serves as a tactical resistance zone during speculative phases. 

The report identified the next resistance at the STH+2 band near $136,000. Traders eyeing a psychological $130,000 level view it as an intermediate waypoint within that statistical range.

Demand exhaustion risk

Short‑term holder conditions now sit in the early overheated zone. The report measured 95% of STH supply in profit, more than one standard deviation above the long‑term mean of 88% and the third such break since early May 2025. 

It concluded that repeated excursions into overheated profit realization territory have historically preceded broader market demand exhaustion.

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