Key Notes
- Public companies have been accumulating more BTC than ETFs for three consecutive quarters.
- A rare mix of profit-taking and capitulation by whales in late June suggests a local bottom for Bitcoin.
- Eventually, capital for Bitcoin will rotate into Bitcoin, resulting in a delayed but eventual altcoin season.
Crypto investors find themselves at a crossroads, as the current Bitcoin BTC $109 215 24h volatility: 3.2% Market cap: $2.17 T Vol. 24h: $34.47 B cycle has yet to see an altcoin season , with Bitcoin’s strength overshadowing weaker altcoins.
Despite sideways price action in many altcoins, on-chain signals suggest a shift is underway, one that requires patience, according to analyst Overdose.
Bitcoin dominance: the corporate era begins
Overdose notes that public companies have purchased more BTC than ETFs for the third quarter in a row, a subtle but powerful indicator that institutional conviction is deepening.
The accumulation has sent Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart climbing steadily, as “corporates and suites” become less sensitive to market sentiment than retail players.
If you are wondering how $BTC is so strong while most of the altcoins go down – this is your answer.
Public companies bought more $BTC than the ETFs for the third quarter in a row.
BTC .D dominance chart is going up simply because it's no longer just a retail asset – it's now… pic.twitter.com/i9UxFkLnun
— OverDose (@Overdose_AI) July 2, 2025
Altcoins, by contrast, remain retail-heavy and are feeling the drag of a cautious, fragmented market. But this is a structural transformation , not a failure.
Overdose argues that the more BTC integrates into corporate balance sheets, the more retail investors will be onboarded into crypto as a whole — and some of them will inevitably flow into riskier altcoins.
Whale behavior signals local pivot for bitcoin
June’s final week may be remembered as a pivot point for Bitcoin, according to analyst Kripto Mevsimi, who reported an unusual blend of whale activity where new whales realized over $641 million in profits while simultaneously taking $1.24 billion in losses.
The rare dual behavior of profit-taking from early entrants and capitulation from latecomers suggests a massive shift for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin whale activity. Source: Kripto Mevsimi
Old whales, meanwhile, played defense, locking in modest profits with minimal losses. Such moves are historically correlated with local market bottoms, especially when short-term holders capitulate.
Importantly, this all happened at the close of H1, prime time for institutional rebalancing. The confluence of timing, behavior, and macro context implies that the late June activity wasn’t random. It may have marked the end of a phase and the beginning of a new one.
Altcoin technicals: macro setup in progress
The Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC (TOTAL2) currently sits around $1.12 trillion, just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (~$1.17 trillion) drawn from the May peak to the June bottom.
This level has historically acted as a pivot in crypto cycles, and reclaiming it would be the first sign that altcoins are preparing for a renewed rally.
TOTAL2 Chart with BoP, MACD Indicators | Source: TradingView
However, the MACD on the daily is still relatively neutral, showing only a faint bullish crossover. It suggests accumulation rather than breakout, a quiet phase before volatility.
The Balance of Power (BoP) indicator is starting to tick positive at 0.55, signaling a slight buyer bias returning after weeks of sideways action.
Should TOTAL2 break above the 0.618 level with conviction, the next major targets are the 1.39 trillion level (Fib 1.618) and 1.63 trillion (Fib 2.618), both commonly seen during mid-cycle expansions.
next
