Ethereum recoils as ETF outflows, CEX balances rise, staking yield falls

Ethereum remained on edge during the weekend as its exchange-traded funds experienced large outflows, exchange balances rose, and staking yield fell.

Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $3,268, down from last month’s high of $4,104. This price action mirrors that of Bitcoin (BTC), which has retreated from an all-time high of $108,000 to below $95,000.

Ether has pulled back as data shows that demand for its ETFs on Wall Street has fallen in the past few days. According to SoSoValue, all Ethereum funds lost $68 million in assets on Friday after losing $159.3 million on Thursday. They lost $86 million in assets on Wednesday.

These funds now have over $11.61 billion in assets, representing 2.96% of Ethereum’s market cap. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs have $107 billion in assets, or 5.2% of its market cap.

Meanwhile, according to CoinGlass, Ethereum balances on centralized exchanges have risen this year. There are now 15.8 million ETH coins on exchanges, up from 15.30 million on Dec. 30.

Higher exchange balances is a sign that investors are moving their tokens from their wallets to CEX platforms. Transferring cryptocurrencies to exchanges is usually the first step for selling them.

More data shows that Ethereum’s futures open interest has dropped from its December high of $31.1 billion, a sign of falling demand. In the last five days, its daily open interest has remained at $28.4 billion, down from the December high of $31.1 billion.

On the positive side, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies often rebound when the open interest falls. For example, ETH price started its recent rally in November when the interest dropped to $14 billion.

Meanwhile, Ethereum stakers are generating a smaller yield. According to StakingRewards, ETH has a staking reward rate of 3.10%, much lower than Solana’s (SOL) 7% and Tron’s (TRX) 4.52%. Ethereum’s staking rewards often drops when more tokens are delegated to staking pools and when fees fall. As shown below, Ethereum’s fees have been on a downward trajectory in the last few weeks.

Ethereum price chart analysis

The daily chart shows that the ETH price peaked at $4,104 in December, forming a double-top pattern with a neckline at $3,520.

It has dropped below the 50-day moving average at $3,415, and found substantial support at the 100-day moving average. Ethereum also found support at the ascending trendline that connects the lowest levels since Nov. 15.

There are signs that the coin has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, a popular bearish sign. Therefore, a drop below the 100-day moving average and the ascending trendline will point to a bearish breakdown, potentially to $2,820, the highest level since August last year.