$38K Incoming? Benjamin Cowen Sheds Light on Bitcoin’s Next Move

• Benjamin Cowen points out that Bitcoin tends to retrace to support levels after surges, and is influenced the by Federal Reserve actions.
• Bitcoin’s interaction with the 8-week moving average is crucial for predicting its price movements.
• Cowen warns of significant Bitcoin corrections impacting altcoin markets, especially in the early months of the year.

In a recent YouTube video , cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen provided an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s current market trends and potential future movements. Cowen’s insights offer a fresh perspective on Bitcoin’s price behavior, highlighting key indicators and historical patterns that could influence its trajectory in the coming weeks and months.

Cowen emphasized the historical pattern of Bitcoin’s behavior , particularly its interaction with critical support levels. He pointed out that, historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to retrace to previous levels for confirmation after a significanT price surge. This pattern has tended to appear in February of BTC halving years, when Bitcoin rebounds from the bull market support band, although it failed to hold this support in 2020. According to Cowen, the Federal Reserve’s actions, either engineering a soft or hard landing, could significantly impact Bitcoin’s performance.

Moreover, Cowen discussed the importance of various moving averages as indicators of potential price movements. The eight-week moving average, in particular, was highlighted as a key marker, with a weekly close below it historically leading to a drop toward the bull market support band. 

BTC/USD eight-week moving average (Source: TradingView )

Bitcoin was trading at $42,669.90 at press time, per CoinMarketCap , aligning with this support band. Cowen pointed out the significance of the 20-week and 100-week moving averages, suggesting that a breach below these levels could signal a more extended downward trend.

Cowen also elaborated on factors that might trigger a correction in Bitcoin’s price. He mentioned seasonal trends, significant news events, and the application of the two-and-a-half log line rule as potential catalysts. A drop of two log lines from the current price could establish a new support level of around $38,000, indicating a normal market correction. However, Cowen warned of the broader implications of such a correction, particularly its potential impact on altcoins .

Cowen’s analysis delved into the potential repercussions for altcoins in case of a significant Bitcoin correction. Historical patterns suggest that January and February could see notable price movements in Bitcoin, often resulting in a ‘hard landing’ for altcoins. Cowen’s analysis underlines the interconnected nature of the cryptocurrency market, where movements in Bitcoin can have a substantial ripple effect across other digital currencies.