Sol 價格SOL

《2.17日行情分析新春特别版》 大年初一，祝大家马年一马当先。整体行情上，大饼在春节期间没有特别大的波动，昨天提醒大家到了69800的关键位还要小心回调，结果晚上到了70100开始泄洪了2000多点，狗庄的新年礼物是一个恐吓。整体的日线行情上，量能没有太大的流入，维持在震荡区间，没有看到好的起色，做单依旧保持高空为主，低多是拿不长久的。 $BTC 大饼压力70500，71400都是可能回调的位置。下方支撑66300，65700，插针注意65700这个位置有没反弹。 $SOL 索子主要看89的压力反应如何，再上去压力在92.3，下方支撑81.8，79.3。 $ETH 以太继续关注2035的压力能不能来，再上去的压力在2077，下方支撑1915，插针留意1865的反弹。 综上，春节期间的行情，震荡寻找做空位置为主，这段行情内的多单依旧格局不了太久。熊市依旧是最有机会的时候，布局在熊市，才能收获更大的结果。

Solana (SOL) is facing a critical technical and fundamental crossroads as of February 16, 2026. Data reveals that weekly decentralized exchange (DEX) volume on the network has dropped by 20% a staggering $21.3 billion decline within just seven days. This drying up of liquidity coincided with a rejection at the $89 resistance level and a significant exodus of long-term holders, whose share of the supply fell by 25.5%. With a hidden bearish divergence now confirmed on the 12-hour chart, the immediate fate of Solana’s price depends on its ability to defend the vital $84 support zone to prevent a deeper slide toward $59. Liquidity Drain: DEX Volume Drops $21.3 Billion The engine behind Solana’s recent ecosystem growth is showing signs of significant fatigue. Volume Contraction: Weekly DEX trading volume plummeted from $95.6 billion (Feb 2) to $74.3 billion (Feb 9). This 20% drop reflects a sharp decline in buyer conviction and active participation across major protocols like Raydium and Jupiter. Weak Rebounds: The lack of trading activity explains why recent price bounces have failed to break through major overhead resistance. Without the "gas" of high trading volume, rallies are increasingly prone to stalling and reversing. The "Strong Hands" Exit: Long-Term Holders Liquidate Perhaps the most concerning on-chain signal is the behavior of Solana’s most committed investor cohorts. LTH Sell-Off: Holders who have owned SOL for 3 to 5 years reduced their share of the supply from 9.77% to 7.28% in just over a week. This 25.5% decline suggests that even the "strongest hands" are losing confidence in a near-term recovery. Mid-Term Retreat: Similarly, the 3-to-6-month holder cohort saw a 14.2% reduction in their positions. This synchronized exit of mid- and long-term capital creates a heavy supply overhang that is difficult for a low-volume market to absorb. Technical Roadmap: The $84 Line in the Sand Solana’s price action has turned bearish following a rejection at $89 and the confirmation of hidden momentum weakness. Hidden Bearish Divergence: On the 12-hour chart, the RSI formed a higher high while the price made a lower high. This divergence typically signals that the underlying strength of an asset is decaying even if the price appears stable, leading to the current 5.4% daily drop. The $84 Support Wall: Cost-basis heatmap data shows a concentration of 6.44 million SOL accumulated between $83 and $84. This represents a major demand wall; if it fails to hold, the next downside targets sit at $79 and eventually $59 (the 0.618 Fibonacci level). Recovery Hurdles: To invalidate the bearish outlook, SOL must reclaim $89 and achieve a confirmed 12-hour close above $91, which would open the path to a broader recovery toward $106. Essential Financial Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Reports of a 20% drop in Solana DEX volume and the selling behavior of long-term holders are based on Dune Analytics and Glassnode data as of February 16, 2026. Technical patterns like hidden bearish divergences are probabilistic and do not guarantee future price performance. Solana remains a high-risk asset subject to extreme volatility; the 25.5% decline in long-term holder share highlights the potential for sustained downward pressure or capital loss. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in Solana or digital assets. Do you think the 20% DEX volume drop is a temporary "cooldown," or is the long-term holder exit a sign that the SOL bull run is officially over?

1. ​Bitcoin (BTC): Holding steady around $68,880, showing signs of a relief rally after being technically "oversold." 2. ​Ethereum (ETH): Hovering near $1,983, slowly recovering from a sharp 5% drop earlier this week. 3. ​Altcoins: Mixed performance; Solana (SOL) is seeing some sell-side pressure (down ~2%), while BNB and others are trading sideways. ​Total Market Cap: Currently valued at approximately $2.29 trillion. 4. ​Main Drivers: Institutional interest is providing a floor for prices, but uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve interest rate signals is keeping a lid on a full-scale breakout. ​$BTC $ETH $SOL

On FEB 15, I published TA for Solana That anything above the $86–89 area is good too short. Targeting $82 area Exactly from $90, Sol went down to $82 area After hitting the target at $82 area Now it went up again from there, Trading now at $87, TA successful $SOL $BTC $ETH

SOL has completed a clear distribution → breakdown → markdown cycle after rejecting from the 0.786 Fibonacci region near 213. Following the rejection from the 0.618 (182) supply zone, price formed lower highs before losing 0.5 (160) and 0.382 (138). The decisive breakdown below 0.236 (111) confirmed bearish continuation. SOL is now consolidating near 85–95, just above the macro base at 67. EMA Structure (Full Bearish Alignment) 20 EMA: 94.26 50 EMA: 110.80 100 EMA: 127.64 200 EMA: 145.32 Price is trading below all major EMAs, confirming strong bearish structure across higher timeframes. The 110–145 zone (50–200 EMA cluster) is now heavy dynamic resistance. Any bounce into this region remains corrective unless reclaimed with strong momentum. Fibonacci Structure 1 Fib: 253.47 0.786: 213.60 0.618: 182.29 0.5: 160.31 0.382: 138.32 0.236: 111.11 0 (Macro Base): 67.14 SOL has lost all key retracement supports and is trading in the lower end of the range. Failure to hold above 81–85 increases the probability of continuation toward 67 (macro base / Fib 0). Current Structure • Clear descending structure since October • Consistent lower highs & lower lows • Impulsive breakdown below 111 • Weak relief bounce forming near 85 For structural recovery, SOL must: • Reclaim 111 (0.236) • Break above 138 (0.382) • Close above 160 (0.5) Until then, trend remains bearish. RSI Momentum RSI (14): 29–36 RSI recently touched oversold territory and is attempting a small recovery. Short-term relief bounce is possible, but no confirmed higher-timeframe bullish divergence yet. 📊 Key Levels Resistance • 111 (0.236) • 138 (0.382) • 160 (0.5) • 182 (0.618) Support • 81–85 (local demand) • 67 (macro base / Fib 0) 📌 Summary SOL remains in a confirmed macro downtrend after losing the 111 structural level. Current price action suggests a corrective bounce near support, but overall bias stays bearish unless SOL reclaims 111–138 with strong acceptance. As long as price trades below the EMA cluster and 0.236 Fib, sellers remain in control. $SOL