マイクロソフト
最終更新日：2026-02-13 24:25 EST。株価情報はTradingViewからリアルタイムで取得されます。
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Daily updates on MSFT stock prices, fund flows, and market news, generated by AI and reviewed by our team of analysts. Always DYOR.
MSFT stock price forecast
According to technical indicators for MSFT stock, the price is likely to fluctuate within the range of 466.83–502.09 USD over the next week. Market analysts predict that the price of MSFT stock will likely fluctuate within the range of 403.05–640.27 USD over the next months.
Based on 1-year price forecasts from 76 analysts, the highest estimate is 908.94 USD, while the lowest estimate is 267.70 USD.
マイクロソフト Stock Development Review and Outlook
How has Microsoft stock performed over the past decade?
Over the past decade (2015 to 2025), Microsoft stock has delivered strong growth, with an annualized return of approximately 26.39%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. During this period, Microsoft's stock price surged from around $54 in November 2015 to nearly $494 in November 2025, representing a total return of almost 1000%. This strong performance is primarily attributed to the company's significant growth, particularly the remarkable progress made in its Intelligent Cloud business under CEO Satya Nadella's leadership.
While the overall trend is upward, stock price volatility (annualized volatility of 26.77%) is influenced by a variety of factors and has gone through several key periods:
Sustained Growth (2015-2020)
Under CEO Satya Nadella's leadership, Microsoft successfully transformed into a "mobile-first, cloud-first" strategy, with the rapid development of its Azure cloud computing business being the main driver of stock price increases. During this period, despite some regular market fluctuations, the overall trend remained stable and upward.
Acceleration and the AI Boom (2020-2025)
In recent years, as artificial intelligence (AI) has become a market focus, Microsoft's leading position in the AI field has further boosted its stock price, repeatedly reaching new historical highs. Strong quarterly earnings reports, especially better-than-expected Azure growth, typically trigger stock price jumps.
Short-Term Volatility and Corrections
Stock prices do not rise in a one-way street and corrections also occur. For example, concerns about high spending on AI infrastructure, macroeconomic uncertainty, and changes in US Treasury yields have all led to short-term stock price volatility and even consecutive declines. In November 2025, Microsoft stock experienced its longest losing streak in over a decade, highlighting the market's cautious attitude towards technology stock valuations.
Key Drivers
Core factors influencing stock price volatility include company earnings reports, product innovation (such as Windows, Office 365, Azure services, and Xbox updates), changes in the competitive landscape, and the overall macroeconomic environment and market sentiment.
Overall, the volatility of Microsoft stock over the past decade has been accompanied by significant value creation, directly reflecting its technological transformation and market leadership.
What factors have influenced Microsoft stock price changes over the past decade?
Over the past decade, key factors influencing Microsoft's stock price have included the company's successful business transformation (especially its shift to cloud computing), its leadership in artificial intelligence (AI), strong financial performance, strategic acquisitions, and macroeconomic conditions.
Strategic Transformation and the Rise of Cloud Computing (Azure)
This is the primary driver of stock price growth.
"Cloud-First" Strategy: Under Satya Nadella's leadership, Microsoft shifted its focus from traditional software sales to a "mobile-first, cloud-first" strategy. The Azure cloud computing platform became a growth engine, with its revenue growing rapidly for many years, even surpassing the growth rate of Amazon Web Services (AWS) at one point.
Office 365 Transformation: Packaging traditional Office software into the Office 365 subscription service created a stable and predictable recurring revenue stream, enhancing investor confidence.
Leadership in Artificial Intelligence (AI).
In recent years, AI has become a market hotspot, and Microsoft's investment in this area has significantly boosted its stock price. Partnership and Investment with OpenAI: Microsoft's massive investment in OpenAI and its integration of its AI technologies (such as Copilot) into its existing products (such as Microsoft 365 and Azure) have made it a market leader in the AI field.
AI Infrastructure Development: Significant capital expenditures on building cloud data centers to support AI needs reflect the company's commitment to future growth and are fueled by market optimism.
Strong Financial Performance and Fundamentals
Consistently exceeding market expectations in earnings reports provide a solid foundation for stock price increases.
Revenue and Profit Growth: Microsoft's total revenue and net profit have grown steadily over the past decade, demonstrating its strong profitability and market competitiveness.
High Market Share and Customer Lock-in: Microsoft boasts a large customer base in the enterprise market, and its products (Windows, Office, Azure) form a strong ecosystem and customer loyalty, reducing competitive risks.
Strategic Acquisitions
A series of successful acquisitions have expanded Microsoft's capabilities and market share.
LinkedIn and GitHub: Acquiring companies like LinkedIn and GitHub enabled Microsoft to enter new markets and strengthen its professional services and developer community.
Activision Blizzard: Despite regulatory challenges, the acquisition of Activision Blizzard strengthened its position in the gaming market (Xbox), a key source of diversified revenue.
Macroeconomic Factors and Market Sentiment
External environments also significantly impact stock prices.
Low Interest Rate Environment: Low interest rate environments for most of the past have favored valuations of technology growth stocks.
Market Sentiment and Tech Stock Sell-off: Microsoft's stock price can experience short-term pullbacks or volatility when macroeconomic uncertainty increases, interest rates rise (as in 2022), or there are concerns about overvaluation of tech stocks.
Pandemic Impact: The surge in demand for remote work and collaboration tools (such as Teams) during the COVID-19 pandemic also drove up the stock price.
How might Microsoft's stock price perform over the next five years?
Note: Predicting future market performance is complex and subject to uncertainty. The following analysis is based on market trends, analyst forecasts, and Microsoft's own strategy and does not constitute investment advice.
Over the next five years, Microsoft's stock price is likely to continue its steady growth, but volatility and valuation reassessment risks coexist. Analysts generally favor its long-term structural advantages, but short-term macroeconomic pressures and anticipated AI spending may lead to adjustments.
Positive factors driving continued growth in Microsoft's stock price:
- Leadership in Artificial Intelligence (AI): Microsoft's investment in AI and its collaboration with OpenAI are expected to continue driving its growth in the cloud services and enterprise software markets. The integration of AI products such as Copilot into its core business will provide new growth drivers for future revenue.
- Strong Cloud Computing Business (Azure): Despite increased market competition, Azure continues its rapid growth. Demand for cloud services is expected to remain strong as enterprises undergo digital transformation and AI applications become more widespread.
- Solid Financial Fundamentals: Microsoft possesses substantial cash reserves (such as the approximately $80 billion mentioned in November 2025) and a diversified business portfolio, providing a buffer against market volatility and flexibility for strategic investments.
- Long-Term Growth Strategy: Microsoft has set a goal of doubling its revenue by 2030, demonstrating management's confidence in future growth and a clear long-term strategic plan.
Potential Risks and Volatility Factors Affecting Continued Microsoft Stock Price Growth:
- Valuation Reassessment: After years of strong growth, Microsoft's valuation may be high, especially during periods of macroeconomic pressure and rising interest rates. Market adjustments to tech stock valuations could lead to a stock price correction.
- Increased Capital Expenditure (CapEx): To support AI infrastructure and cloud business growth, Microsoft needs to continue investing heavily in capital expenditures. If spending increases exceed market expectations, it could trigger investor concerns in the short term, leading to a stock price decline.
- Macroeconomic Pressures: Global trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty could slow corporate IT spending, impacting Microsoft's revenue from enterprise customers.
- AI Bubble Risk: Despite the promising future of AI, excessive market optimism regarding AI technology could trigger "bubble" concerns. A shift in market sentiment could negatively impact AI-related stocks, including Microsoft.
Potential Performance of Microsoft's Stock Price Over the Next Five Years
Analysts predict that Microsoft's stock price could fall within different return ranges over the next five years, depending on its business performance and the macroeconomic environment:
- Conservative Scenario: Annualized return of around 7%. Steady stock price growth, but facing macroeconomic headwinds and valuation pressures.
- Neutral Scenario: Annualized return of around 14%. Strong cloud and AI businesses, and a relatively stable macroeconomic environment.
- Optimistic Scenario: Annualized return of around 19%. Continued explosive growth in AI and cloud businesses, optimistic market sentiment, and a favorable macroeconomic environment.
In conclusion, despite short-term risks, Microsoft stock is expected to provide substantial returns for investors over the next five years, based on its leading position in AI and cloud computing and its sound financial condition. However, investors need to closely monitor the company's financial reports and guidance and be prepared for potential volatility.
Can Microsoft stock reach $1,000?
Reaching $1,000 for Microsoft's stock is possible, but achieving this requires sustained strong growth and could take years. Analysts are optimistic about Microsoft's long-term prospects, citing its leadership in cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI) as key drivers.
Potential Pathways to $1,000:
Sustained Leadership in AI: If Microsoft can solidify its leadership in enterprise AI, as it once did in productivity software, investors may assign it a higher valuation. Successfully integrating AI technology into its products and services and achieving significant profitability will boost market confidence.
Growth in Azure: Despite intense market competition, Azure remains central to Microsoft's growth. As enterprise digital transformation deepens and AI applications become more widespread, demand for cloud services will continue to grow, providing Microsoft with a strong revenue stream.
Strong Financial Performance: Consistently exceeding market expectations in financial reporting, particularly in Azure and AI-related revenue, will provide a solid foundation for stock price increases. This will boost investor confidence and could lead to a significant expansion in valuation multiples.
Valuation Reassessment: If Microsoft can continue to demonstrate its long-term profit potential in the AI economy, investors may reassess its value and assign it higher valuation multiples. Forbes analysis suggests that even a slight increase in the price-to-sales ratio could push the stock price above $1,000 within the next few years.
Timeline and Risks of Achieving the Goal
Timeline:
The time to reach $1,000 may vary depending on the forecasting model. For example, Skilling predicts Microsoft could reach $1,000 by 2030, while CoinCodex's algorithm predicts it will be achieved in June 2032. This indicates that it is a long-term goal.
Potential Risks:
Overvaluation: After years of strong growth, Microsoft's valuation may already be high, especially in the event of increased macroeconomic uncertainty or rising interest rates.
High Capital Expenditures: To support the growth of its AI infrastructure and cloud business, Microsoft needs to invest heavily in capital expenditures, which could impact earnings expectations in the short term and trigger market concerns.
Competition and Macroeconomic Environment: Pressure from cloud service competitors like Amazon, as well as macroeconomic volatility, could impact Microsoft's performance and stock price.
In conclusion, a Microsoft stock price reaching $1,000 is possible, but this will depend on its continued innovation and execution in AI and cloud computing, as well as the overall market environment. Investors need to focus on its long-term growth potential while also being wary of potential valuation and macroeconomic risks.
What if I invested $10,000 in Microsoft 10 years ago?
If you had invested $10,000 in Microsoft stock ten years ago (around November 2015), your investment would be worth over $100,000 by November 2025, representing a total return of over 1000%.
Specific estimates are as follows:
Initial Investment: $10,000
Initial Share Price (around November 2015): Approximately $46 to $54 per share
Current Value (including reinvested dividends): Approximately $108,000 to $116,000
Total Return: Approximately 980% to 1060%
This means your initial investment has grown approximately tenfold. This return far exceeds the performance of the S&P 500 index during the same period (which had a total return of approximately 250%).
Microsoft's outstanding performance is primarily attributed to its successful "cloud-first" strategic transformation and early investment in artificial intelligence (AI), factors that have collectively driven the company's strong long-term stock price growth.
Latest MSFT stock news
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マイクロソフト株の急落で3,570億ドルの時価総額が消失
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マイクロソフトが2日間で3810億ドルの時価総額を失い、AI投資ブームの分化が明らかに
マイクロソフトが営業幹部を昇進、AI事業の成長に全力を注ぐ
Microsoftが7.5億ドルでPerplexityを買収した後、Microsoft株を買うべきか、それとも売るべきか？
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What is P/E ratio (TTM)?
The P/E ratio (TTM) stands for price-to-earnings ratio (trailing twelve months). It is a historical valuation metric calculated using a company's earnings per share (EPS) over the most recent twelve consecutive months, reflecting the company's past profitability.
The P/E ratio measures the relationship between a stock's price and a company's profitability, and is often used as a basis for judging whether a stock is "cheap" or "expensive."
P/E ratio = market price (P) ÷ earnings per share (EPS), or P/E ratio = total market capitalization ÷ net profit attributable to shareholders
The interpretation of the P/E ratio (TTM) should always be considered alongside other factors and is mainly used for valuation comparisons rather than as a standalone indicator.
- A lower P/E ratio (TTM) means investors are paying less for each unit of earnings. This may indicate that the stock is undervalued, or that the market has limited expectations for the company's future growth, such as in mature or slow-growing industries.
- A higher P/E ratio (TTM) means investors are paying more for each unit of earnings. This often reflects expectations of strong future earnings growth, which is common among growth or technology stocks, though it may also suggest the stock is overvalued.
- Comparison with peers: Compare the company's P/E (TTM) with the average or median P/E of other companies in the same industry. A significantly higher P/E may require further analysis to determine whether the company's high valuation is justified by stronger growth prospects or competitive advantages.
- Comparison with historical levels: Compare the company's current P/E (TTM) with its own historical average (such as over the past 5 or 10 years) to assess whether the current valuation is at a historical high or low.
- Comparison with the broader market: Compare the company's P/E (TTM) with major market indices (such as the S&P 500) to see how the market is valuing the company overall.
P/E ratios can vary widely across industries, and there is no single "ideal" P/E level. A reasonable P/E range depends on the industry, the company's growth potential, and the broader macroeconomic environment. Investment decisions should not rely solely on the P/E ratio (TTM) but should be based on a comprehensive analysis that includes company quality, growth prospects, and financial health.
Can I trade stocks on Bitget?
You can trade stocks on Bitget, but mainly through stock tokens and stock perps, rather than by directly buying or selling traditional stocks.
This approach reflects Bitget's vision as a Universal Exchange (UEX), designed to connect traditional financial markets with cryptocurrency markets.
Bitget currently offers the following stock-related trading formats:
1. Stock tokens (spot)
Nature: Stock tokens are digital tokens pegged to the price of specific traditional stocks (such as TSLAUSDT and NVDAUSDT) and are traded on Bitget's spot market.
Features: When you trade stock tokens, you are buying and holding tokens rather than owning the underlying traditional stocks.
- The price of these tokens generally follows the price movements of the stocks they are pegged to, such as Tesla or Nvidia.
- The advantage is that you can participate in the price movements of traditional financial assets, such as U.S. stocks, using cryptocurrencies (for example, USDT), without the need for a traditional brokerage account.
2. Stock perps
Nature: Bitget also offers USDT-margined perpetual futures, commonly referred to as stock perps, based on major U.S. blue-chip stocks such as Tesla and Meta.
Characteristics: Stock perps are derivative products that allow you to take a bullish or bearish view on the future price of an underlying stock through margin trading. These products typically support leverage, such as up to 25x.
It does not involve owning the underlying stock. Instead, profits and losses are settled based on price movements of the futures.
Important note: When trading stock perps on Bitget, you are participating in derivative markets within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. This is fundamentally different from purchasing publicly traded shares through a traditional brokerage, as you do not own equity in the underlying company.
Futures trading and the use of leverage involve high risk. Please ensure you fully understand the risks before trading.
If you wish to directly hold equity in traditional stocks and enjoy shareholder rights (such as receiving dividends), you must trade through a regulated traditional securities brokerage or brokerage platform.
What are the advantages of Bitget's stock perps?
Bitget's stock perps—typically perpetual futures based on stock tokens prices—are an innovative offering that allows cryptocurrency platforms to provide exposure to traditional financial markets.
Compared to traditional stock or futures trading, they offer several unique advantages, primarily due to the platform's trading infrastructure.
Bitget's stock perps, typically USDT-denominated derivatives, offer the following key advantages:
1. Trading convenience and global accessibility
- 24/7 trading: Traditional stock markets, such as U.S. equity markets, operate during fixed trading hours. In contrast, cryptocurrency derivatives markets are typically open 24/7. This means investors can trade anytime, capitalizing on breaking news or market fluctuations.
- Lower entry barriers and faster onboarding: Compared with traditional brokerages, which often require extensive identity verification and lengthy account setup processes, Bitget generally offers faster account onboarding. Users can trade using cryptocurrencies such as USDT, without the need for complex fiat deposit and withdrawal procedures.
- Global accessibility: Users can access derivatives trading linked to globally recognized stocks via the Bitget platform, subject to applicable regulations.
2. Capital efficiency and high leverage
- High leverage options: Stock perps typically offer higher leverage than traditional stock trading (for example, up to 25x). This allows traders to control larger positions with smaller margin requirements, improving capital efficiency.
Note: While high leverage can amplify gains, it also amplifies losses proportionally. - Two-way trading: Traders can easily take both long and short positions. This means traders can potentially profit from market volatility whether stock prices rise or fall, provided the market direction is correctly anticipated.
3. Trading and settlement using cryptocurrency
- USDT margin: Stock perps on Bitget typically use USDT (or other stablecoins) as the margin and settlement currency. For users who already hold cryptocurrency, there is no need to convert assets into fiat currency, allowing them to trade directly with stablecoins.
- Efficient fund transfers: Crypto-based transfers and settlements are typically faster than traditional fiat systems, enabling more efficient global fund allocation.
4. Integration
One-stop platform: Bitget allows users to trade spot cryptocurrencies, crypto derivatives, and stock perps on a single platform, making it easier to manage different asset types in one place.
While Bitget's stock perps offer several advantages, it is important to understand the associated risks.
- High leverage risk: Leveraged trading can result in rapid loss of your entire margin.
- No equity ownership: When trading stock perps, you do not own the underlying shares. As a result, you are not entitled to dividends or voting rights.
- Market liquidity risk: Tokenized stock perps may have lower liquidity than their counterparts in traditional stock markets, especially outside regular trading hours.
In summary, Bitget's stock perps offer advantages such as greater trading flexibility, lower entry barriers, and higher capital efficiency.
What are the trading fees for Bitget stock perps?
Trading fees for Bitget stock perps (USDT-margined perpetual futures) mainly include transaction fees and funding rates.
Transaction fees:
Bitget offers limited-time fee promotions for stock perps (especially tokenized stock perps) from time to time to attract traders.
Standard reference rates: Under Bitget's standard futures fee structure, the taker fee is typically around 0.06%, while the maker fee is around 0.02%.
Current promotions for stock perps (important): To promote its stock perps products, Bitget is offering discounted transaction fees during Q4 2025, with taker fees as low as 0.006% and maker fees as low as 0.002%. There is also a limited-time promotion offering zero-fee trading for spot stock tokens.
Funding rate:
The funding rate is a key mechanism in perpetual futures (including stock perps) that helps keep the futures price closely aligned with the spot price of the underlying asset. It is not a fee charged by the platform, but a periodic payment exchanged between long and short traders.
Funding rates fluctuate dynamically and are mainly driven by market sentiment and imbalances between long and short positions. Stock perps generally experience lower volatility than cryptocurrencies, so funding rates are often relatively low during stable market conditions. However, during earnings seasons or major positive or negative news events, heavy concentration of long or short positions—such as in high-growth technology stocks like Tesla or Nvidia—can create significant imbalances, causing funding rates to spike in the short term.
Funding payments are typically settled every 8 hours. If you close your position before the funding settlement time, no funding payment will be charged or received.
Funding rates are not fixed. If you hold a position for an extended period, high positive funding rates (for long positions) or high negative funding rates (for short positions) will affect your overall holding costs or potential returns. For this reason, it is important to monitor the funding rate in real time on the trading interface.