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Bitcoin Slides Below $84K Amid Record Outflows, NFCI Signals Potential December Rally

Bitcoin Slides Below $84K Amid Record Outflows, NFCI Signals Potential December Rally

Cointribune2025/11/23 03:15
By: Cointribune
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Bitcoin’s decline has picked up pace, with the leading cryptocurrency breaking through multiple key support levels. On Friday, it dipped as low as $80,000, its lowest point in months. While it made a brief attempt to climb back toward $84,000, the price remained under pressure, leaving it down 12% in the past week and 23% over the previous month. The slip under $84,000 also pushed the price back to its 100-week exponential moving average, a region it had not revisited since October 2023.

Bitcoin Slides Below $84K Amid Record Outflows, NFCI Signals Potential December Rally image 0 Bitcoin Slides Below $84K Amid Record Outflows, NFCI Signals Potential December Rally image 1

In brief

  • Bitcoin dropped to $80,000 on Friday, its lowest level in months, and struggled to recover toward $84,000.
  • Crypto funds recorded $2 billion in outflows last week, with Bitcoin leading at $1.4 billion and Ethereum at $689 million.
  • Analyst Miad Kasravi noted that the National Financial Conditions Index points to improving liquidity and could signal a major Bitcoin move in early to mid-December.

Record Outflows and Market Pressure Intensify for Bitcoin

Fresh figures released by The Kobeissi Letter on November 21 highlighted the scale of the current downturn . The newsletter reported that Bitcoin’s drop on Friday triggered over $1.5 billion in leveraged liquidations within four hours, showing how quickly forced selling intensified.

In a separate post, the newsletter noted that investors have been withdrawing funds from crypto products at an unusually fast pace. Last week, outflows from crypto funds reached $2.0 billion, the largest since February, and after three consecutive weeks of redemptions, total withdrawals over this period added up to $3.2 billion.

Bitcoin led the outflows with $1.4 billion, followed by Ethereum at $689 million, recording some of their biggest weekly losses this year. Coupled with declining prices, total assets under management in crypto funds have fallen 27% from their October peak to $191 billion, a decline considered structural rather than temporary.

US exchange-traded funds added to the pressure as spot Bitcoin ETFs faced another down week, with outflows hitting $1.22 billion for the third consecutive week.

Historical Signals and Liquidity Trends

While a number of market observers have been looking for signs of a Bitcoin bottom in chart patterns and on-chain data, analyst Miad Kasravi evaluated the outlook from a broader macro angle . Kasravi conducted a 10-year backtest covering 105 financial indicators, noting that the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) is one of the limited signals that consistently offers a four-to six-week lead on Bitcoin’s next move.

Kasravi pointed to past examples to illustrate the pattern, showing how changes in financial conditions often preceded major Bitcoin rallies

  • In October 2022, the NFCI began easing, signaling looser financial conditions while Bitcoin remained near $16,000
  • During this period, institutional investors quietly accumulated Bitcoin while most traders held back, and by January 2023, the price had climbed from $16,000 to $31,000, an increase of 94% over six months
  • A similar scenario occurred in mid-2024 when the NFCI peaked in tightness in July, Bitcoin bottomed around $53,000, and strong buying in late August pushed the price above $107,000 for a 98% rally

At present, Kasravi observed the NFCI at -0.52 and declining, with the index likely moving toward -0.60, a level that historically corresponds to 15–20% gains in Bitcoin for every 0.10 drop.

Liquidity Shifts and Bitcoin’s Near-Term Outlook

The analyst pointed to an upcoming Federal Reserve policy shift in December, where the central bank will move its mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills. While this action is not officially called quantitative easing, it functions similarly by adding liquidity to the banking system, reminiscent of the 2019 “not-QE” operation that was followed by a 40% Bitcoin rally over three months.

So, what does this mean for Bitcoin if the NFCI continues to fall into mid-December? A further decline could mark the beginning of a new phase of rising liquidity. Looking at the index’s historical four- to six-week lead on major shifts, this pattern points to Bitcoin’s next significant cyclical move in early to mid-December 2025, offering traders a reference point linked to the broader financial environment.

When this type of NFCI-driven trend emerges, Bitcoin has historically outperformed altcoins by around 20–30% at the start of the move. This typically occurs because large investors direct their initial allocations toward the most liquid and established asset before rotating into smaller tokens.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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