Bitcoin’s decline has picked up pace, with the leading cryptocurrency breaking through multiple key support levels. On Friday, it dipped as low as $80,000, its lowest point in months. While it made a brief attempt to climb back toward $84,000, the price remained under pressure, leaving it down 12% in the past week and 23% over the previous month. The slip under $84,000 also pushed the price back to its 100-week exponential moving average, a region it had not revisited since October 2023.
Fresh figures released by The Kobeissi Letter on November 21 highlighted the scale of the current downturn . The newsletter reported that Bitcoin’s drop on Friday triggered over $1.5 billion in leveraged liquidations within four hours, showing how quickly forced selling intensified.
In a separate post, the newsletter noted that investors have been withdrawing funds from crypto products at an unusually fast pace. Last week, outflows from crypto funds reached $2.0 billion, the largest since February, and after three consecutive weeks of redemptions, total withdrawals over this period added up to $3.2 billion.
Bitcoin led the outflows with $1.4 billion, followed by Ethereum at $689 million, recording some of their biggest weekly losses this year. Coupled with declining prices, total assets under management in crypto funds have fallen 27% from their October peak to $191 billion, a decline considered structural rather than temporary.
US exchange-traded funds added to the pressure as spot Bitcoin ETFs faced another down week, with outflows hitting $1.22 billion for the third consecutive week.
While a number of market observers have been looking for signs of a Bitcoin bottom in chart patterns and on-chain data, analyst Miad Kasravi evaluated the outlook from a broader macro angle . Kasravi conducted a 10-year backtest covering 105 financial indicators, noting that the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) is one of the limited signals that consistently offers a four-to six-week lead on Bitcoin’s next move.
Kasravi pointed to past examples to illustrate the pattern, showing how changes in financial conditions often preceded major Bitcoin rallies
At present, Kasravi observed the NFCI at -0.52 and declining, with the index likely moving toward -0.60, a level that historically corresponds to 15–20% gains in Bitcoin for every 0.10 drop.
The analyst pointed to an upcoming Federal Reserve policy shift in December, where the central bank will move its mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills. While this action is not officially called quantitative easing, it functions similarly by adding liquidity to the banking system, reminiscent of the 2019 “not-QE” operation that was followed by a 40% Bitcoin rally over three months.
So, what does this mean for Bitcoin if the NFCI continues to fall into mid-December? A further decline could mark the beginning of a new phase of rising liquidity. Looking at the index’s historical four- to six-week lead on major shifts, this pattern points to Bitcoin’s next significant cyclical move in early to mid-December 2025, offering traders a reference point linked to the broader financial environment.
When this type of NFCI-driven trend emerges, Bitcoin has historically outperformed altcoins by around 20–30% at the start of the move. This typically occurs because large investors direct their initial allocations toward the most liquid and established asset before rotating into smaller tokens.