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Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi says the Federal Reserve may implement several rate cuts in 2026, driven by a fragile economy rather than robust growth. The approach is expected to be gradual and cautious, not an aggressive easing cycle. For crypto markets, this policy trajectory influences liquidity and risk appetite, with Bitcoin and other digital assets reacting to shifts in monetary signals and leverage conditions. Recent data show the CPI rose 2.7% year‑over‑year in November 2025, with core CPI at 2.6%, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. Zandi notes inflation remains elevated, and while upside surprises are possible, the risk is two‑sided. This backdrop complicates the rate‑cut calculus and underscores the need for disciplined policy signaling, a factor crypto traders watch as they assess demand drivers and cross‑asset correlations.

【近期行情观点维持原判：还有拉升还有周线诱多】 在$BTC 日线没有出现连阴的趋势下跌走势前，那当前就是震荡区间，就还会探顶，所以保持这个行情预期：日线先冲高到MA50后回落，随之进窄幅平台，1月份完成窄幅再次配合周线的诱多走出一波好的拉升。 做交易要知行合一，没出错前，就要有充足的魄力和自信。不要盘面走的不好就怀疑那个怀疑自己，这样是做不好交易的，既然理论指标都支持了这个判断，那就坚定住，别人可以不相信自己，自己一定要相信自己，不然你在币圈还能靠谁？ 一个个都是成年人了，好多都三四十岁老大不小了，一进币圈都被狗庄吓成巨婴，不是好笑？没有出错前，就大胆点，心细点，错了就认错止损，又不是没亏过钱？

Data of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index suggests the average investor sentiment has now been inside the extreme fear zone for 13 straight days. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Still Pointing At Extreme Fear The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment shared by traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. The index determines the sentiment by referring to the data of five factors: market cap dominance, trading volume, Google Trends, social sentiment, and volatility. It then represents it using a numeric scale that runs from zero to hundred. All values above 53 indicate the presence of a greed sentiment among the investors, while those below 47 suggest the dominance of fear. Levels lying between the two thresholds correspond to a net neutral mentality. Besides these three core regions, there are also two “extreme” zones in the Fear & Greed Index, known as the extreme fear and extreme greed. The former occurs at and below 25, while the latter occurs above 75. Now, here is how the sentiment among investors in the current Bitcoin market is, according to the Fear & Greed Index: As is visible above, the majority sentiment in the cryptocurrency sector is one of extreme fear at the moment, with the indicator sitting at a value of 23. The despair among the investors isn’t new, as the index has, in fact, remained in this region for the last couple of weeks. As displayed in the chart, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has indicated extreme fear for 13 consecutive days now, underscoring the FUD that has been present in the market. If history is anything to go by, though, the extremely fearful sentiment may not actually be such a bad sign for BTC and other cryptocurrencies. Often, digital asset markets tend to move in a direction that goes contrary to the crowd’s belief. This probability of an opposite move generally becomes the strongest inside the extreme sentiment zones, with major tops and bottoms historically forming while the index has been in the respective region. The price low in November, which has acted as the bottom for Bitcoin so far, also occurred alongside an extended stay inside the extreme fear territory. Clearly, though, that extreme fear streak wasn’t enough to reignite sustained bullish momentum for BTC, as the asset has only consolidated since then. As such, it only remains to be seen whether the latest stay inside extreme fear will be able to change that or if it will be a while before the bottom is reached in the current cycle. $BTC $ETH $XRP

《12.26日行情分析：守住，多头曙光就要再现！》 又是一个回手掏啊B友们，不知道你们有没防住，这个行情目前终于是回到8.8w上方了，既然我们的判断没有出错，那就继续维持原判：日线先冲高到MA50后回落，随之进窄幅平台，1月份完成窄幅再次配合周线的诱多走出一波好的拉升。在日线没有出现连阴的趋势下跌前，都保持这个预期。做交易要知行合一，没出错前，就要有充足的魄力和自信。 $BTC 首先在大饼上，今日的支撑87800不要再去跌破，那么整体走势到89700-90100才是压力区间，只要这个压力区间维持住，没有那么快下去，91100的压力也是可以期待一手的。再次回手掏跌破87800？那就老支撑85800继续看看。 $SOL 索子也是一样的，121这里的支撑不要再被跌破，还有希望去一下126.4的压力。如果121再次跌破回不去了，那还是118-118.4继续看多。115也是一个支撑。 $ETH 以太的话又是周三直播说的这个分割线起了作用，目前短线支撑2930不要跌破，还有望去到3015-3020的压力，再上去压力在3150。下方支撑2874，2835。 综上，只要日线不出现大的趋势下跌的问题，那么冲高到日线MA50只是时间问题，所以继续持仓，继续埋伏。做交易如果自己都不相信自己，那还能靠谁？拿出魄力和自信，大胆干，大不了就是打我们止损，在币圈，谁还没亏过？ 如果你看不懂行情，把握不准方向，欢迎加入科长。点击加入科长社群 （关注科长，每日为你带来最新的行情分析和精准插针点位，多空仅供B友参考思路，严格止损止盈。

The December Liquidity Trap Why Every Crypto Pump Is A Premeditated Exit Current market dynamics reveal a predatory pattern where every December rally serves as a liquidity event for institutional distribution. Professional tape reading shows a consistent rejection at overhead resistance, characterized by aggressive selling into any upward momentum. Technical evidence from recent price action confirms that buyers are repeatedly trapped as "relief pumps" fail to establish higher support levels. Visually, the intraday charts for Bitcoin and major altcoins demonstrate a series of lower highs followed by sharp, high-volume liquidations, erasing gains within hours. This systematic "pump and dump" cycle indicates a lack of organic demand and a dominant bearish sentiment among large-scale market participants. For analysts, the focus remains on the structural inability of the market to sustain a breakout beyond critical gamma levels. Until a definitive shift in order flow occurs, these short-term price spikes remain deceptive, representing exit opportunities rather than a genuine trend reversal. Capital preservation remains the only logical priority.$BTC