Goldman Sachs Issues "Neutral" Signal for Tesla (TSLA.US): Cybercab's Cost Advantage Is Significant, but Software Scalability Is Key to Valuation

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs recently released a report on Tesla (TSLA.US), maintaining a "Neutral" rating with a 12-month price target of $360. The bank believes that Tesla is poised to establish a significant cost advantage in the autonomous taxi market through Cybercab, but the core variable determining its business prospects and valuation potential lies in the scalability of its autonomous driving software.

Cybercab Officially Hits the Road, Unsupervised Miles Surpass One Million

On September 3rd local time, Tesla held a launch event in Austin, Texas, officially unveiling the autonomous taxi Cybercab and announcing the start of paid ride services within a limited area of Austin. This model eliminates traditional manual control devices such as the steering wheel, brake pedal, accelerator pedal, and rearview mirror, utilizes a two-seat layout, and is designed specifically for fully autonomous scenarios. Tesla also announced that its Robotaxi fleet's "unsupervised" cumulative mileage has surpassed one million miles. According to data from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles, as of September 3rd, Tesla had registered 420 autonomous vehicles in Texas, including 45 Cybercabs.

However, just hours after the launch event, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced a compliance review of approximately 1,000 Cybercabs, focusing on examining whether Tesla's self-certification process and technical basis for the model meet Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards. As a result, Tesla's stock price plummeted 5.92% on September 4, closing at $354.08 and wiping out around $88 billion in market value in a single day. The previous trading day, the stock had surged 5.42% due to the Cybercab launch.

Tesla's head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, subsequently confirmed that once FSD v15 completes the next round of technical integration, Robotaxi services are expected to achieve 24/7 operation around October. Tesla describes FSD v15 as an "architectural leap," with model parameters roughly 10 times the scale of the current version and seven parallel improvement tracks. Robotaxi services are now in regular operation in six U.S. cities (Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa), with daily service hours from 6:00 to 22:00.

Goldman Sachs: Software is the Key to Scalability

Goldman Sachs analysts noted in their report that Tesla's focus on building low-cost vehicles, relying on its integrated manufacturing process and pure visual perception system, is expected to enhance the economic efficiency of the Robotaxi business. If Tesla can keep Cybercab production costs in the $20,000–$30,000 range at scale, this would give Tesla a cost advantage of $0.05–$0.30 per mile compared to autonomous driving competitors whose early-stage costs range from $50,000 to $100,000. Industry analysis estimates the per-unit cost of Cybercab at about $23,000–$25,000, while a Waymo vehicle costs between $70,000 and $150,000 each.

However, Goldman Sachs also emphasized that for investors, the bigger question is whether Tesla's AI solution can support rapid, large-scale geographic rollout of its autonomous driving software. Broader operational coverage will generate more revenue and dilute the vehicle's cost base over more miles, making software economics a more critical factor for Robotaxi profitability than the price of the vehicle itself.

Goldman's scenario analysis shows Tesla's stock could reach $500 in an optimistic case or drop to around $150 in a pessimistic scenario. The main downside risks include slowing EV demand, increased competition, tariff pressures, delays in launching FSD and other products, as well as operational and margin pressures.

Market disagreement on Tesla remains significant. According to LSEG statistics, currently 24 analysts rate Tesla as a "Buy" or higher, 23 as "Hold," and 7 as "Sell" or lower. GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson reiterated a "Sell" rating after the Cybercab launch, with a target price of just $24.86, arguing Tesla's current P/E ratio is as high as 328x, making the stock significantly overvalued. Morgan Stanley maintains an "Equal-weight" rating with a $400 price target. StoneX reaffirmed a "Buy" rating after the Cybercab launch with a $475 target price.