Gold consolidates around $4,400, awaiting guidance from US CPI data
Gold continued its weak performance at the start of this week,
However, relying solely on employment data to judge the mid-term trend in gold has its limitations. What the market truly needs to confirm now is whether the resilience of the US economy will further transmit into inflation. If employment remains strong and rising energy prices push cost pressures higher, the US may maintain high rates for longer, putting more valuation pressure on gold in the short term; conversely, if upcoming inflation data does not heat up further, the hawkish impact of the jobs data may gradually fade.
It should be noted that this gold pullback does not mean that the long-term bullish logic for gold has fundamentally changed. After surging previously, the structure of market participants has already shifted—aside from short-term speculative capital, long-term allocation demand, the physical market, and funds in the derivatives market still provide significant support. Thus, what merits more attention now is the buying power after gold's pullback from its highs, rather than simply interpreting the short-term drop as a trend reversal.
On the four-hour chart, gold remains in a weak, volatile structure in the short term. The rapid post-payrolls drop put pressure on short-term moving averages, with market momentum not yet fully recovered, and the market is more inclined to wait for inflation data to determine direction. If gold can stabilize above $4400 and break again through $4465, short-term rebound space may open; if the rebound remains capped near $4465, it indicates bears still hold the short-term initiative. If $4400 is convincingly broken, the market may further test the $4350 area, or even look for buying at lower support zones.
Editor's summary
Editor: Zhu Henan
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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