Bitcoin News Update: Federal Reserve Shifts Course—Crypto Markets Brace for Critical Volatility Challenge

Coinpedia's outlook on prices.>

With the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision set for October 29, the cryptocurrency market is bracing for increased turbulence as investors await the central bank’s next move. Most experts anticipate a 25 basis point rate reduction, which would lower the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, reflecting cooling inflation and a slowdown in economic activity. According to Coinpedia, markets have already factored in a 96.7% chance of this cut, and another reduction is likely in December. However, all eyes are on Chair Jerome Powell’s comments after the meeting, as his statements could influence expectations for 2026 monetary policy and spark significant moves in risk assets such as

and , as highlighted in .

FOMC Meeting Today: Crypto Investors Await Fed Rate Cut and Powell’s Remarks.>

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading between $113,000 and $115,000, with two main outcomes possible before the FOMC announcement. If the Fed adopts a hawkish tone or maintains current policy,

could slide toward $104,000. On the other hand, a dovish approach might spark a rally up to $120,000, as previously discussed by Coinpedia. Technical experts point to a potential “buy the dip” opportunity if the rate cut is confirmed, with on-chain data revealing $358 million in in the last 24 hours as BTC climbed to $116,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) continues to move sideways, echoing Bitcoin’s cautious trend, but a liquidity boost from the Fed could trigger a breakout, according to Coinpedia’s analysis.

Asia Market Open: Crypto Rally Pauses as Bitcoin Drops Below $113K Before Fed Decision.>

The upcoming U.S.-China trade summit on October 30 introduces further unpredictability. Recent diplomatic developments hint at progress toward a trade agreement, which could lift risk sentiment and benefit crypto assets. Bitcoin briefly surpassed $116,000 following positive news on U.S.-China relations, but waning institutional interest has since pulled BTC back to $112,000, as reported by Coindesk. Swissblock analysts warn that Bitcoin needs to maintain support at $114,000 to continue its upward momentum, with on-chain indicators such as spot ETF inflows and active wallet addresses remaining crucial, as referenced by

and . Forklog’s research team also outlines the requirements for a breakout in their review of these on-chain signals, as summarized by .

Why Are Americans Unconcerned About the Upcoming Fed Rate Cut – and What Will Happen to Crypto?.>

Although the anticipated rate cut is already reflected in prices, any unexpected moves—such as a larger 50-basis-point cut or a pause—could spark sharp declines or rallies. If the Fed holds rates steady, Bitcoin and Ethereum could experience steep drops, while safe-haven assets like gold may attract more interest, a risk noted in Coinpedia’s FOMC preview. Conversely, a dovish shift could help BTC regain its role as a hedge against inflation and low interest rates, a trend seen in previous periods of monetary easing, as discussed in

.

Nearly $360M In Crypto Shorts Squeezed As Bitcoin ....>

The overall market is still consolidating, with Bitcoin ETF inflows and broader economic factors such as tech sector earnings and quantitative tightening influencing the next direction. Glassnode analysts observe that current inflows are still below those seen in past bull runs, indicating subdued institutional participation, as outlined in a

. At present, traders are closely monitoring the $113,000–$116,000 range to determine whether the market will break out into a sustained uptrend or remain in a prolonged sideways phase, a scenario explored in the .